What to expect from COP 29: Finance takes centre stage

As part of her MSc in Climate Change and Development and her role as Deputy Head of Greenbank, Nicola Day has attended COP 26, COP 27, and COP 28 in person. 

This year she will participate virtually in COP 29 for Greenbank, as a registered virtual United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Blue Zone participant, which means she has virtual access to the formal conference and negotiation space.

In this article, Nicola singles out some likely topics to feature at this year’s COP which has been designated the ‘finance COP.’

What to Expect at COP 29: Finance takes centre stage 

As the climate crisis deepens, with global temperatures rising and extreme weather events intensifying, the world stands at a critical juncture. Climate change is no longer a distant threat but an immediate challenge that affects every aspect of our lives—from food security and water availability to economic stability and public health. The upcoming COP 29, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11-22 November 2024, will tackle a host of pressing concerns, including climate finance, international carbon markets, loss and damage funding, and the need for more ambitious climate commitments.

Labelled the ‘finance COP’ the cornerstone of this year’s Climate Change Conference will focus on agreeing and adopting a new climate finance target, replacing the $100 billion per annum commitment set in 2009. Against a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, reaching agreements is set to be ever more challenging, and the success of this COP will largely be determined by the finance agreements that can be made.

Below is an overview of the major agenda items anticipated to shape COP 29 and influence the global response to climate change in the coming years.

Climate change is no longer a distant threat but an immediate challenge that affects every aspect of our lives—from food security and water availability to economic stability and public health.

Agreeing and adopting a new climate finance target

The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) is the priority item on the agenda. The parties at COP 29 will be working to finalise a more ambitious climate finance goal to become effective from 2025, moving on from the $100 billion per annum agreed in 2009. Many vulnerable developing countries cannot build resilience to worsening climate impacts or adopt new clean energy or low carbon solutions technologies without financial support, so this agreement will be integral to the progress they can make. For instance, a study of 91 developing countries estimates they will need a total of $4.5 trillion to achieve their climate action pledges, much more than what is currently on the table.

With developed countries having largely failed on their annual funding promise, the trust of developing countries has been severely eroded. Given this we will see the NCQG be used as a central enabling feature of the climate negotiations.

Finalising the rules around international carbon markets

The second key item on the agenda this year will be to finalise agreements on effective international carbon markets. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement sets the rules for effective international carbon markets, which will provide an important way to encourage global collaboration and investment in emissions reduction projects such as forest conservation.

COP 29 is aiming to finalise the rules ensuring environmental integrity, transparency, additionality, and avoidance of double counting, which are key issues for credible global emissions trading and cost-effective climate mitigation. The success of Article 6 negotiations will be an important milestone, paving the way for a higher, more representative carbon price and for trading to begin.

Confirming further details for the loss and damage funding

Launched in recognition that some impacts of climate change are irreversible and often borne by vulnerable countries that have done the least to contribute to the problem, the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) was established at COP 27 and came into effect at COP 28. This year further negotiations will take place to confirm further details around the fund, its eligibility criteria and how the funds will be channelled and to whom. A crucial expectation is for developed countries to announce new pledges to increase support for climate-related damages. Whilst approximately $700 million has been pledged to date, reports cite that developing countries could face up to $580 billion in damage costs by 2030.

Renewing climate commitments

The climate commitments called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that individual countries prepare as part of their obligations under the Paris Agreement are due to be renewed by February 2025, and therefore this COP will be a pivotal time to build momentum behind bolder and more ambitious plans. It is hoped that countries will have bolstered their commitments following findings from the first Global Stocktake (GST) announced last year which showed that the world is collectively way off track to limit global warming to 1.5C. The GST provided a roadmap for climate action, which included the decisions to transition away from fossil fuels, double energy efficiency and triple renewables. COP 29 will push for ambitious commitments which are deliverable and credible.

Setting a Global Goal for Adaptation

Building on the framework established at COP 28, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) is expected to be further developed at COP 29. Adaptation remains a vital component of climate resilience, especially for regions that face immediate and escalating climate impacts. While adaptation has often taken a backseat to mitigation, COP 29 will prioritise the need for clear adaptation targets and indicators to measure progress effectively.

COP 29 will address the need to scale up adaptation finance to support countries in preparing for climate impacts. By creating concrete adaptation goals, the GGA aims to focus global efforts on strategies that protect vulnerable populations from the worsening effects of climate change.

Recent reports from climate scientists continue to ring alarm bells, underscoring the urgency of averting irreversible climate catastrophe and a mounting global emergency. COP 29 represents a critical opportunity to set ambitious, yet achievable targets that can galvanize meaningful action and build trust across nations. Achieving success at COP 29 will require an integrated approach that combines substantial financial commitments, ambitious climate pledges, and unwavering support for the communities most at risk from climate impacts. In our interdependent world, the economic and political stakes make it clear: this is a shared crisis that demands a unified response.

Achieving success at COP 29 will require an integrated approach that combines substantial financial commitments, ambitious climate pledges, and unwavering support for the communities most at risk from climate impacts.